The National Bank predicts that inflation in the coming months will accelerate to 12.5% - which puts pressure on prices

06.11.2026, 11:03◉ 02 min readEditorial team “SHCHO STALOSIA”

In Ukraine, inflation will accelerate by the end of 2026, but in 2027 it will return to the trajectory of decline. — Ukrinform.

The National Bank predicts that inflation in the coming months will accelerate to 12.5% - which puts pressure on prices

According to Ukrinform, this is stated in the October Inflation Report published by the National Bank of Ukraine.

As Ukrinform reported, as of November 1, 2026, according to preliminary data, Ukraine's international reserves amounted to $49,075.8 million. In October, they increased by 4.2% due to foreign exchange receipts from international partners, which exceeded the net sale of foreign currency by the National Bank and the country's debt payments in foreign currency.

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Context

In 2027, inflationary pressure will gradually weaken as the effects of rising fuel prices are exhausted, as well as a slowdown in wage growth in conditions of restrained economic activity. The monetary policy measures of the NBU will also have a significant impact.

The NBU forecasts real GDP growth of 0.4% in 2027 due to an increase in public investment in the defense industry and the restoration of critical infrastructure. In 2028, economic growth may accelerate to 2.2% amid a revival in consumer demand, increased harvests and increased private investment as security risks decrease.

What's next

"According to the NBU forecast, inflation in 2026 will accelerate to 12.5%, and from next year it will begin to decline: to 7.3% at the end of 2027 and to 5% in 2028. Real GDP this year will shrink by 0.4%, in 2027 it will grow by 0.4%, and in 2028 – by 2.2%, "the report says.

The increase in fuel costs and the consequences of the destruction of production and logistics infrastructure will continue to increase business costs and affect prices through direct and secondary effects. In addition, price pressures will intensify against the background of the expected expansion of fiscal stimulus at the end of this year.