Details

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Context

After Washington's diesel agreement with Moscow and the announcement of an "energy truce", the situation changed. According to a Reuters report dated October 27, no new strikes on Russian refineries were reported after October 16. Sectoral sources of the agency estimated the growth of recycling in the second half of the month at about 25% compared to its beginning.

What's next

Washington sought an end to Ukrainian attacks on oil refining. At the same time, Russia continued to hit the Ukrainian energy sector. This creates a dangerous asymmetry: Russian factories are given time to repair, and Ukrainian critical infrastructure remains under attack.

In my estimation, such a respite weakens the Kremlin's economic constraints on the war. Supporters of its continuation receive an additional argument: it is possible to restore their own resources without stopping the destruction of Ukrainian power plants, substations and life support systems.